Annals of Epidemiology
○ Elsevier BV
Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Annals of Epidemiology's content profile, based on 19 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Essex, R.; Lim, S.; Jagnoor, J.
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BackgroundDrowning remains a major global public health challenge. This study examined whether the timing and trajectories of urbanisation--beyond the current built environment--are associated with subnational drowning mortality. MethodsWe linked satellite-derived measures of built-environment change (GHSL), population crowding (WorldPop), surface water exposure (JRC Global Surface Water), and infrastructure proxies (VIIRS/DMSP nighttime lights) to GBD 2021 drowning mortality estimates across 203 ADM1 regions in 12 countries (2006-2021; 3,248 region-year observations). Temporal predictors captured recent expansion, development "newness" ([≤]10-year built share), acceleration/volatility, and a crowdingxgrowth interaction. We screened predictors using LASSO (10-fold cross-validation) and fitted mixed-effects models with region random intercepts. Distributed-lag models tested temporal precedence and development age, and income-stratified models assessed heterogeneity. ResultsAdding temporal predictors improved fit beyond contemporaneous built-environment measures ({Delta}AIC=177; {Delta}BIC=147). In adjusted models, crowdingxgrowth was strongly positively associated with drowning mortality, and a higher share of recent development was associated with higher mortality. Lag models showed a development age gradient: older built environment was most protective. Associations differed by income group, with several key coefficients reversing sign across strata. DiscussionDrowning mortality appears shaped by development histories as well as present-day conditions, with risk concentrated in rapidly changing, dense settings and the newest built environments. Cross-context heterogeneity suggests mechanisms and prevention priorities are unlikely to be uniform. ConclusionsDevelopment timing and trajectories help explain subnational drowning mortality beyond current built form alone. Prevention and planning should prioritise transition-period safety strategies in newly developing and rapidly densifying areas.
Hassani, A.; Pecar, K.; Soliman, M.; Bunyon, P.; Ellinger, C.; Tulysewskid, G.; Croft, J.; Carillo, C.; Wewegama, G.; du Plessis-Schneider, S.; Estevez, J. J.
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Background Individuals experiencing or at risk of homelessness face substantial barriers to preventive eye care that are poorly addressed by standard service models. Interdisciplinary optometry-social work collaboration offers a rights-based approach to improving engagement and continuity of care. Methods A convergent mixed-methods study was conducted between February and August 2024 at a multidisciplinary community centre. Clients experiencing or at risk of homelessness received integrated optometry and social work assessment and were prioritised as high, medium, or low based on combined clinical and social risk. Social work follow-up was guided by the Triple Mandate and W-Questions framework. Quantitative data were summarised using mean (SD), median [IQR], or n (%). Qualitative case notes were analysed using content analysis with inductive coding and secondary review for consistency. Results A total of 165 clients had priority categories coded (high: 68; medium: 47; low: 154). Demographic data were available for 132 clients (60% male; mean age 49.5 years [SD 16]); 27% had not completed high school, 89% reported weekly income below AUD 1000, and 28% had vision impairment. Two hundred forty-five case-note entries were consolidated into 146 unique records. SMS (46%) and phone calls (38%) were the most documented contact methods, although only 21% of calls were answered; missed calls (13%) and disconnected numbers (7%) were common. Multi-modal contact was more frequently documented for higher-priority clients. Appointment assistance was the most recorded facilitator (71%), while rights-based supports, including interpreter and transport assistance, were infrequently documented (<=5%). Qualitative analysis identified unstable communication, reliance on informal supports, and service fragmentation as key influences on recall outcomes. Conclusion This study supports an interdisciplinary, rights-based optometry-social work model to address barriers to preventive eye care among people experiencing or at risk of homelessness. Embedding structured handovers and tiered recall processes within community-based services may strengthen continuity and accountability for high-priority clients. Future implementation should evaluate outcomes related to equity of reach, service integration, and sustained engagement in care.
Claus, L.; McNamara, M.; Oser, C.; Fogle, C.; Canine, B.
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Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality in the United States, despite being largely preventable through effective management of risk factors. This study evaluates the impact of Phase II cardiac rehabilitation (CR) on functional capacity and quality of life, using data from the Montana Outcomes Project Cardiac Rehabilitation Registry. Functional capacity improvements were assessed via the six-minute walk test (6MWT) and Dartmouth COOP questionnaire, with statistical analyses exploring the influence of CR session attendance, demographic factors, and referring diagnoses. Results demonstrated significant gains in 6MWT, with a mean improvement of 330.73 feet (p < .0001), and quality of life scores across all subgroups. A dose-response relationship was observed, indicating greater improvements with increased CR sessions (p < .0001), though diminishing returns were observed beyond 24-35 visits. Demographic factors and complex conditions influenced outcomes, underscoring the need for tailored strategies to enhance CR access and effectiveness. These findings highlight the critical role of CR in improving patient outcomes and emphasize the importance of addressing barriers to participation in underserved populations.
Fernandes Davies, V.; Perrut, I.; Thow, A.-M.; Duran, A. C.
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Objective: To investigate in the National School Feeding Program (PNAE) the local level drivers and barriers to the implementation of four guidelines: the banning of sugary drinks; restrictions on the procurement of processed and ultra-processed foods; the mandatory increase in weekly servings of fruits and vegetables offered to students; and mandatory direct procurement from family farmers. Design: Qualitative study that used semi-structured interviews. Street level bureaucracy theory informed the theoretical framework and thematic analysis. Setting: Brazilian municipalities, across the country five geographic regions (North, Northeast, Southeast, South, and Midwest). Participants: Stakeholders (e.g. nutritionists, school cooks, and food procurement managers) involved in the local implementation of the PNAE program across the country. Results: Ninety stakeholders were interviewed. Stakeholders reported having autonomy to perform their activities, collaboration and support from other members within the local government and food providers, adequate infrastructure such as a well-equipped kitchens, the availability of trained personnel, and political commitment as drivers for optimum program implementation. Reported barriers included lack of support and resistance to change among cooks, teachers and parents; insufficient physical and human resources; and limited political commitment. When barriers outweighed drivers, interviewees reported adapting their practices, often in restrictive ways that could compromise the implementation of the program. Conclusions: Drivers and barriers to local PNAE implementation were generally similar across studied municipalities, although their magnitude varied. In contexts of greater economic vulnerability and fiscal constraint, additional support and targeted actions from the federal government may be required to strengthen local implementation
Yang, H.; Liu, Y.; Kim, C.; Huang, C.; Sawano, M.; Young, P.; McPadden, J.; Anderson, M.; Burrows, J. S.; Krumholz, H. M.; Brush, J. E.; Lu, Y.
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BackgroundHypertension is the leading modifiable risk factor for ischemic stroke, yet the adequacy of preventative hypertension care in routine clinical practice remains suboptimal. Whether gaps in hypertension management represent missed opportunities for stroke prevention remains unclear. ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between hypertension care delivery and the risk of incident ischemic stroke. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective, matched, nested case-control study among adults with hypertension using electronic health record data from a large regional health system (2010-2024). Patients with a first-ever ischemic stroke were matched 1:2 to controls on age, sex, race and ethnicity, and calendar time. Three care metrics were assessed during follow-up: (1) outpatient visits with blood pressure (BP) measurement per year; (2) number of antihypertensive medication ingredients; and (3) medication intensification score. Conditional logistic regression estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs). ResultsThe study included 13,476 cases and 26,952 matched controls (N = 40,428). Mean (SD) age was 64.8 (12.2) years, 54.1% were female, and mean follow-up was 2,497 (1,308) days. Cases had fewer BP visits per year (median, 2.50 vs. 3.01; p < 0.001), similar number of medication ingredients (2.00 vs 2.00), and lower treatment intensification scores (-0.211 vs - 0.125). In adjusted models, >5 BP visits per year was associated with lower stroke odds (aOR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.51-0.59) compared with [≤]1 visit. Use of 2-3 medication ingredients (vs 0) was also associated with reduced stroke odds (aOR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75-0.86), whereas >3 ingredients was not significant. The highest quartile of treatment intensification showed the strongest association (aOR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.44-0.51). Findings were consistent across subgroup and sensitivity analyses, including strata defined by baseline SBP and follow-up SBP. ConclusionsGreater engagement in hypertension care was associated with lower odds of ischemic stroke, suggesting that gaps in routine management may represent missed opportunities for prevention.
Franzese, F.; Bergmann, M.; Burzynska, A.
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Socioeconomic inequalities in health and well-being are a major public health concern, particularly in ageing populations. Education is a key determinant shaping multiple aspects of health outcomes. We used cross-sectional data from wave 9 of the German sample (n=4,148) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to test whether formal education is associated with well-being in later adulthood, with health literacy, self-rated health, and preventive health behaviours as possible mediators. Our results showed that education was positively associated with greater well-being, but only via indirect pathways. Specifically, self-rated health, health literacy, and fruit and vegetable consumption mediated the relationship between education and well-being accounting for 54.7, 24.7, and 12.6 percent of the total effect, respectively. In addition, there were significant positive correlations between education and health literacy, as well as high-intensity physical activity, daily fruit and vegetable consumption, more preventive health check-ups, and less smoking. In contrast, alcohol consumption was more common among those with higher levels of education. All health behaviours and health literacy were correlated directly or indirectly (i.e., mediated by health) with well-being. These findings highlight the importance of examining indirect pathways linking education to well-being in later life. Interventions aimed at improving health literacy and promoting healthy behaviours may help reduce educational inequalities in quality of life among older adults.
Laskaris, Z.; Baron, S.; Markowitz, S. B.
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ObjectivesRising temperatures are a major climate-related hazard for U.S. workers, increasing heat-related illness and a broad range of occupational injuries through indirect pathways often overlooked in economic evaluations. We examined the association between temperature and occupational injury and illness and quantified heat-attributable injuries (including illnesses) and costs in New York State. MethodsWe conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study of 591,257 workers compensation (WC) claims during the warm season (2016-2024). Daily maximum temperature was linked to injury date and county and modeled using natural cubic splines, with effect modification by industry and worker characteristics. ResultsInjury risk increased with temperature, becoming statistically significant at approximately 78{degrees}F. Relative to 65{degrees}F, injury odds increased to 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01-1.10) at 80{degrees}F, 1.12 (1.07-1.18) at 90{degrees}F, and 1.17 (1.11-1.23) at 95{degrees}F. Overall, 5.0% of claims (2,322 annually) were attributable to heat. At temperatures [≥]80{degrees}F, an estimated 1,729 excess injuries occurred annually, generating approximately $46 million in WC costs. An estimated $3.2 million to $36.1 million in medical expenditures were associated with incomplete claims, likely borne outside the WC system. ConclusionsThese findings demonstrate substantial economic costs not fully captured within WC and support workplace heat protections as a cost-containment strategy that can reduce health care spending and strengthen workforce resilience.
Robert, A.; Goodfellow, L.; Pellis, L.; van Leeuwen, E.; Edmunds, W. J.; Quilty, B. J.; van Zandvoort, K.; Eggo, R. M.
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BackgroundIn England, the burden of respiratory infections varies by ethnicity, contributing to health inequalities, but the role of additional demographic factors remains underexplored. We quantified how differences in social mixing and demographic characteristics between ethnic groups cause inequalities in transmission dynamics. MethodsWe analysed the association between the ethnicity and the number of contacts of 12,484 participants in the 2024-2025 Reconnect social contact survey, using a negative binomial regression model. We simulated respiratory pathogen epidemics using a compartmental model stratified by age, ethnicity, and contact levels, at a national level and in major cities in England. FindingsAfter adjusting for demographic variables, participants of Black and Mixed ethnicities had more contacts than those of White ethnicity (rate ratios (RR): 1.18 [95% Credible Interval (CI): 1.11-1.26], and 1.31 [95% CI: 1.14-1.52]). Participants of Asian ethnicity had fewer contacts (RR: 0.85 [95% CI: 0.79-0.91]). In national-level simulations, individuals of White ethnicity had the lowest attack rates due to demographic differences and mixing patterns. Local demographic structures changed simulated dynamics: attack rates in individuals of Black and Mixed ethnicities were approximately double those of White ethnicity in Birmingham, but less than 60% higher in Liverpool. InterpretationDemographic characteristics and mixing patterns create inequalities in transmission dynamics between ethnicities, while local demographic characteristics and pathogen infectiousness change the expected relative burden. To ensure mitigation strategies are effective and equitable, their evaluation must explicitly account for inequalities arising from local context. FundingMedical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Wellcome Trust Research in context Evidence before this studyWe searched PubMed for population-based studies quantifying differences in respiratory infections between ethnic groups, up to 1 April 2026, with no language restrictions. Keywords included: (respiratory pathogens OR influenza OR COVID-19) AND (ethnic* OR race) AND (inequ*) AND (compartmental model OR incidence rate ratio OR hazard ratio). We excluded studies that focused on non-respiratory pathogens (e.g. looking at consequences of COVID-19 on incidence of other pathogens). A population-based cohort study showed that influenza infection risk was higher in South Asian, Black, and Mixed ethnic groups compared to White ethnicity in England. Another population-based cohort study highlighted that during the first wave of COVID-19 in England, the South Asian, Black, and Mixed ethnic groups were more likely to test positive and to be hospitalised than the White ethnic group. Census data in England showed that the distributions of age, household size, household income and employment status differed between ethnic groups, and the recent Reconnect social contact surveys highlighted the impact of each demographic factor on the participants number of contacts. Added value of this studyOur study shows that social contact patterns, mixing, and demographic structure all lead to unequal infection risk between ethnic groups in respiratory pathogen epidemics. Using the largest available social contact survey in England, we show that both the average number of contacts and the proportion of high-contact individuals varied by ethnic group, even after adjusting for participants demographics. These differences, together with mixing patterns and age structure, led to lower expected incidence among individuals of White ethnicity than in all other ethnic groups in simulated outbreaks. The level of inequality between ethnic groups changed when we used different values of pathogen transmissibility. Finally, as ethnic composition and population structure differ between cities in England, our results show differences in expected inequalities at a local level. Implications of all the available evidenceInequalities in infection risk between ethnic groups are context- and pathogen-dependent. They arise from both local population structure and contact patterns. Detailed information on mixing between groups and population structure is needed to accurately measure group-specific infection risk. These findings indicate that public health interventions based only on national-level estimates conceal regional variation in risk and may ultimately increase inequalities. Public health interventions need to be tailored to local contexts to be equitable and effective. Finally, our findings provide a foundation for understanding the progression from infection-risk inequalities to disparities in disease presentation and clinical outcomes.
Ekenze, O.; Scott, M. R.; Himali, D.; Lioutas, V.-A.; Seshadri, S.; Howard, V. J.; Fornage, M.; Aparicio, H. J.; Beiser, A. S.; Romero, J. R.
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Sex specific differences in stroke are recognized. Whether differences in incident stroke risk persists in recent periods needs further elucidation to aid public health preventive efforts. Aim: To determine long-term sex specific trends in stroke and stroke risk factors at different epochs among Framingham Heart Study participants. Methods: We examined age-adjusted 10-year stroke incidence using Cox regression in women and men in five epochs: 1962-1969 (epoch 1, reference), 1971-1976 (epoch 2), 1987-1991 (epoch 3), 1998-2005 (epoch 4), 2015-2021 (epoch 5). We compared stroke incidence by sex across epochs, estimated decade-wise linear trends overall and by sex. We compared risk factors in successive epochs to the first, and estimated sex-specific trends in risk factors. Interactions between baseline risk factors with epoch and trends were assessed by sex. Secondary analyses were repeated in participants <60 years old. Results: Incident stroke occurred in 4.5% (178/3996) in epoch 1, 3.9% (227/5786) in epoch 2, 3.9% (199/5137) in epoch 3, 2.7% (207/7642) in epoch 4, 2.2% (119/5534) in epoch 5. Men had higher risk of incident stroke in each epoch with significant difference in epochs 2 (HR 1.41, 95% CI [1.08, 1.84]) and 4 (HR 1.46, 95% CI [1.11, 1.91]) overall, and in epoch 4 (HR 2.13, 95% CI [1.17, 3.87]) among those <60 years. Stroke incidence declined by 16% per decade in men (HR 0.84, 95% CI [0.79, 0.89]) and 19% per decade in women (HR 0.81, 95% CI [0.76, 0.86]). Among those <60 years, stroke incidence declined by 22% per decade in women (HR 0.78, 95% CI [0.67, 0.95]). Hypertension declined by 8% per decade in women only ([OR] 0.92, 95% CI [0.90, 0.94]), while Atrial fibrillation and diabetes increased in both. Conclusion: Stroke incidence continues to decline in recent periods for women and men. Among participants <60 years, decline was observed only in women, possibly related to decline in hypertension in women.
German Mesner, I.; Lake, D. E.; Kausch, S. L.; Krahn, K. N.; Gummadi, A.; Clark, T. W.; Niestroy, J. C.; Sahni, R.; Vesoulis, Z. A.; Gootenberg, D. B.; Ambalavanan, N.; Travers, C. P.; Fairchild, K. D.; Sullivan, B. A.
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Premature very low birth weight (VLBW) infants have high rates of mortality and morbidity from sepsis, necrotizing enterocolitis, and respiratory failure requiring intubation and mechanical ventilation. Earlier detection of cardiorespiratory deterioration using vital signs from continuous physiological monitoring may lead to more timely interventions and improved outcomes. To further this research area, we present PreMo, a publicly available dataset of continuous heart rate and oxygen saturation, demographics, clinical events, and outcomes for 3,829 VLBW patients from four Neonatal Intensive Care Units (NICUs) in the United States. The PreMo dataset consists of a collection of parquet files, RO-Crate metadata, and sample usage code scripts hosted on the University of Virginia LibraData Dataverse website.
Malagon-Liceaga, A.; Basile-Alvarez, M. R.; Fermin-Martinez, C. A.; Ramirez-Rivera, D. L.; Perezalonso Espinosa, J.; Diaz-Sanchez, J. P.; Garcia-Gonzalez, S. B.; Carrillo-Herrera, K. B.; Cabrera-Quintana, L. A.; Antonio-Villa, N. E.; Gomes-Goncalves, N.; Garcia-Pena, C.; Bello-Chavolla, O. Y.
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Background: Prediabetes is highly prevalent in older adults and is characterized by heterogeneous clinical trajectories, including regression to normoglycemia and progression to diabetes. While prediabetes has been associated with impaired physical function and frailty, the longitudinal impact of both a single diagnosis and dynamic glycemic transitions on functional outcomes remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate associations between baseline prediabetes and glycemic transitions over time with trajectories of functional capacity and frailty in older adults. Methods: We conducted a pooled analysis of harmonized data from five nationally representative longitudinal aging cohorts (MHAS, HRS, CHARLS, ELSA, CRELES) within the Gateway to Global Aging Data, including adults aged [≥]50 years with [≥]1 HbA1c measurements. Prediabetes was defined per ADA criteria (HbA1c 5.7-6.4%). Functional outcomes included activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental ADL (IADL), and frailty assessed using Fried phenotype, FRAIL scale, and a deficit-accumulation Frailty Index (FI). Mixed-effects Poisson models estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for baseline prediabetes, while generalized estimating equations assessed time-varying glycemic status and transition trajectories. Models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and time-varying covariates, with sensitivity analyses including BMI, smoking, and alcohol intake. Findings: Among 18,571 participants (median follow-up 13.6 years), baseline prediabetes was associated with increased progression of functional deficits and frailty compared with normoglycemia, including higher FI values and accelerated FI progression. Prediabetes was associated with higher incidence of ADL, IADL, and multimorbidity deficits from early follow-up, although time-dependent changes in incidence rates were not significant. In time-varying analyses (n=7,840), both prediabetes and diabetes were associated with higher incidence of functional deficits compared with normoglycemia, with diabetes showing the strongest effects across all outcomes. Diabetes was associated with greater FI burden and accelerated progression, whereas prediabetes showed a smaller increase, with attenuation over time. Among individuals with baseline prediabetes, regression to normoglycemia occurred in 20.8% and was associated with increased incidence of ADL and frailty deficits. In contrast, progression to diabetes occurred in 24.3%, and was associated with lower risk of incident ADL and Fried frailty deficits compared to stable prediabetes. Interpretation: Prediabetes is associated with increased risk of functional decline, frailty, and deficit accumulation in older adults, independent of progression to diabetes. Regression to normoglycemia was associated with higher risk of functional deterioration. These findings suggest that prediabetes reflects a state of metabolic vulnerability linked to biological aging rather than solely a precursor to diabetes and highlights a need to reframe its clinical significance in older populations. Funding: This research was supported by Instituto Nacional de Geriatria in Mexico. Keywords: Prediabetes; Glycemic transitions; Frailty; Functional decline; Aging; Multimorbidity
Barre-Quick, M.; Yeh, P. T.; Kennedy, C. E.; Azuma, H.; McLellan, C.; Cooney, E. E.
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Abstract Importance Stigma and discrimination against transgender and gender-diverse people are prevalent across many settings and may contribute to substantial health disparities. Objective To synthesize global evidence on the prevalence of stigma, discrimination, and resilience among transgender (trans) and gender-diverse adults. Data Sources A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Central, LILACS, and PsycInfo for articles published between January 1, 2010 and January 2, 2023. This database search was supplemented by grey literature and secondary reference searches. Article Selection Studies were eligible if they presented primary quantitative data on prevalence of stigma, discrimination, and/or resilience among trans and gender-diverse adults (aged 18 and over), with no restrictions on study design, language, or geographic region. Data Extraction and Synthesis Two independent reviewers extracted data using standardized forms, with discrepancies resolved by consensus. The JBI Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Articles was used to assess risk of bias. Random effects meta-analysis was conducted for dichotomous prevalence measures using inverse variance weighting and logit transformation; non-dichotomous prevalence data were summarized descriptively. Main Outcomes and Measures Outcomes included prevalence estimates for various forms of stigma (anticipated, perceived, internalized, and experienced), discrimination in legal/institutional settings (housing, healthcare, employment, police/prison), and resilience. Results A total of 97 articles, with data from 72,158 unique trans and gender-diverse participants across 26 countries, met inclusion criteria. Studies showed moderate levels of anticipated stigma, perceived stigma, and internalized stigma. Meta-analyses of 36 studies provided pooled estimates of discrimination prevalence across multiple domains: 21.4% in housing (e.g., eviction, rental denial), 24.6% in healthcare (e.g., denial of care, mistreatment), 32.8% in employment (e.g., hiring bias, workplace harassment), and 39.1% in police/prison settings (e.g., profiling, mistreatment). High heterogeneity was observed across studies, reflecting regional and methodological differences. Resilience scores ranged from moderate to high, indicating variation within trans and gender-diverse communities. Conclusions and Relevance This systematic review and meta-analysis found that stigma and discrimination against trans and gender-diverse adults are pervasive globally. Variation in stigma and discrimination across settings and regions underscores the need for targeted interventions and policy reforms. Funding World Health Organization through a grant from the Elton John AIDS Foundation and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Garcia Quesada, M.; Wallrafen-Sam, K.; Kiti, M. C.; Ahmed, F.; Aguolu, O. G.; Ahmed, N.; Omer, S. B.; Lopman, B. A.; Jenness, S. M.
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Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been important for controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, particularly before and during initial vaccine rollout. During the pandemic, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued isolation and masking guidance in case of COVID-19-like illness, a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, or known exposure to SARS-CoV-2. However, the impact of this guidance on mitigating transmission in office workplaces is unclear. We used a network-based mathematical model to estimate the impact of this guidance on SARS-CoV-2 transmission among office workers and their communities. The model represented social contacts in the home, office, and community. We used data from the CorporateMix study to parametrize social contacts among office workers and calibrated the model to represent the COVID-19 epidemic in Georgia, USA from January 2021 through August 2022. In the reference scenario (58% adherence to guidance among office workers and the broader population), workplace transmission accounted for a small fraction of total infections. Reducing adherence among office workers to 0% increased workplace transmissions by 27.1% and increasing adherence to 75% reduced workplace transmission by 7.0%. Increasing adherence to 75% among office workers had minimal impact on symptomatic cases and deaths; increasing it among the broader population was more effective in reducing office worker cases and deaths. In our model, moderate adherence to recommended NPIs in workplaces was effective in reducing transmission, but increasing adherence had limited benefit given workplaces that have low contact intensity and hybrid work arrangements. These results underscore the public health benefits of community-wide adoption of recommended NPIs.
ENCISO DURAND, J. C.; Silva-Santisteban, A. A.; Reyes-Diaz, M.; Huicho, L.; Caceres, C. F.; LAMIS-2018,
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Objectives: In Latin America, up-to-date information to monitor UNAIDS 95-95-95 HIV targets in key populations, such as men who have sex with men, is limited. Elsewhere, structural homophobia restricts access to ART. Conceptual frameworks suggest that intersecting forms of violence and discrimination may negatively influence HIV care outcomes through psychosocial and structural pathways, although empirical evidence remains limited. The study aimed to assess whether sexual orientation outness and recent homophobic violence are associated with not being on ART among Latin American MSM living with HIV. Methods: This cross-sectional study is a secondary analysis of data from LAMIS-2018, including 7,609 MSM aged 18+ with an HIV diagnosis [≥]1 year prior from 18 Latin American countries. Participants self-reported ART status, sociodemographic characteristics, homophobic violence, and sexual orientation outness. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions identified those factors associated with not being on ART. Results: Nine percent of MSM with HIV were not on ART, 18% reported low sexual orientation outness, and 27% experienced homophobic violence, especially in Andean and Central American countries. Not being on ART was associated with recent homophobic violence (aPR=1.25), low outness (aPR=1.22), unemployment (aPR=1.27), and residence in the Andean subregion (aPR=1.87), Mexico (aPR=1.28), or the Southern Cone (aPR=1.45) versus Brazil. Protective factors included being older (25-39: aPR=0.72; >39: aPR=0.49), living in large cities (aPR=0.72), having a stable partner (aPR=0.78), and university education (aPR=0.74). Conclusions: Recent homophobic violence and low sexual orientation outness were associated with not being on ART among MSM in Latin America. While access varies across countries, structural factors such as stigma and violence may limit engagement in care. Addressing these barriers alongside strengthening health systems may be key to improving ART uptake and advancing progress toward the 95-95-95 targets.
Mhino, F. M.; Ndanga, A.; Chivandire, T.; Sekanevana, C.; Mpandaguta, C. E.; Mwanza, T.; Mutengerere, A.; Scott, S.; Chimberengwa, P.; Dixon, J.; Ndhlovu, C. E.; Seeley, J.; Chingono, R. M. S.; Sabapathy, K.
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IntroductionOver one billion people worldwide have hypertension. In Zimbabwe, prevalence is an estimated 38%, surpassing the global average of 34%, and >50% of hypertensives are undiagnosed. The Community BP groups (Com-BP) study examined whether community groups of people living with hypertension, provided with BP machines and led by trained Facilitators could improve awareness, screening and support for those diagnosed with hypertension, to help blood pressure (BP) control. We present findings from the quantitative evaluation of the Com-BP pilot intervention. MethodsThe acceptability of the Com-BP intervention, its potential effectiveness in improving knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) and in reducing BP among hypertensive adults in Zimbabwe, was evaluated. Cross-sectional surveys using standardised questionnaires, and BP and Body Mass Index (BMI) assessments, were done at the start and end of the pilot intervention. Statistical evidence of difference between baseline and follow-up was examined using Wilcoxon signed-rank test for continuous data and McNemars test for categorical data. ResultsFourteen groups (seven urban and seven rural) were formed and 151 participants joined over a median of 5months. Retention in the groups was 97.9% (137/140 recruited at baseline), with approximately equal numbers from the urban and rural sites. Median age at baseline was 54 years (IQR 45-66y; min-max 30-92y) and the majority (79%, n=108) were female. Most participants (82.5%, n=113) rated their experience of the group sessions as excellent. The proportions of participants with changes in KAP from baseline to endline were as follows: 45.3% (n=62) to 81.0% (n=111) (p=0.004) able to identify at least two pre-disposing factors for hypertension; 65.0% (n=89) to 77.4% (n=106) (p=0.02) reporting [≥]1day of vigorous physical activity/week; 28.5% (n=39) to 13.9% (n=19) (p=0.001) reporting salt added to meals at the table. There was no statistical evidence of any difference in medication adherence, p=0.06. The proportion of participants with uncontrolled hypertension was 58.1% (n=79) at baseline and reduced to 31.8% (n=43) at follow-up (p<0.001). DiscussionCommunity groups for improving awareness, detection and support are acceptable and led to improvements in self-reported KAP and prevalence of uncontrolled BP. Further research on the sustainability and impact of the intervention is required.
Essex, R.; Lim, S.; Jagnoor, J.
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Drowning remains a major global public health challenge, yet how built environment characteristics shape population-level drowning risk remains poorly understood. This study linked satellite-derived built environment data to subnational drowning mortality estimates across 203 regions in 12 countries from 2006-2021. It found that built environment associations with drowning mortality are complex, non-linear, and shaped by development context. Urban extent was strongly protective, while built area near water showed protection overall but increased risk when combined with high population crowding. Almost all drowning mortality variance occurred between regions rather than within regions over time, indicating risk is predominantly determined by place-based characteristics. Income-stratified analyses revealed profound heterogeneity: crowding was protective in low-to middle-income settings but near-null in high-income regions, while waterfront development captured very different realities across contexts. These findings highlight the importance of tailoring drowning prevention strategies to local built environment configurations and development contexts.
Cody, M. E.; Chang, H.-C.; Foldi, J.; Jankowitz, R. C.; Balic, M.; Cushing, T.; Donnelly, C.; Freeney, S.; Levine, J.; Petitti, L.; Ryan, N.; Spencer, K.; Turner, C.; Tseng, G. C.; Desmedt, C.; Oesterreich, S.; Lee, A. V.
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BackgroundInvasive lobular breast cancer (ILC) is the most commonly diagnosed special histological subtype of breast cancer (BC). Metastatic ILC (mILC) is less sensitive to FDG-PET imaging and often metastasizes to unusual sites --peritoneum, gastrointestinal (GI) tract, ovaries, urinary tract, and orbit--which may go unrecognized after a long disease-free interval. Some metastatic sites cause nonspecific symptoms, like abdominal/epigastric pain, with numerous published case reports of mILC misdiagnosed as gastric cancer. These atypical BC metastatic sites may lead to late and/or misdiagnosis, thereby delaying effective treatments. ObjectiveWe developed a patient survey to investigate the patient-reported prevalence of delayed diagnosis or misdiagnosis of mILC and their potential impact upon treatment outcomes. MethodsA 45-question survey was developed and piloted with breast cancer researchers, clinical oncologists, and patient advocates. This IRB-approved survey was then distributed to patients with ILC. Analyses including data QC and visualization were conducted in R using descriptive statistics. Incomplete or inconsistent responses were excluded, and summary statistics were stratified by four common mILC sites to highlight subgroup differences. Results525 patient surveys were completed, with 450 patients diagnosed with ILC, and of those 321 diagnosed with mILC. For those with mILC, 33.3% (n=107) were diagnosed with de novo mILC at initial presentation. Of the patients diagnosed with mILC, 32.1% (n=103) presented with other medical conditions at diagnosis. Misdiagnosis was reported by 26.2% (n=84) of patients with mILC, and of these cases, 31% (n=26) had [≥]2 misdiagnoses. The top 5 misdiagnoses were bone-related condition (24.7%), benign breast condition (23.4%), another type of BC (7.8%), diagnostic delay (7.8%), and menopause related (5.2%). 44.5% of patients waited [≥]1 year for an accurate diagnosis. 49 patients were treated for their misdiagnosis, and 6 received incorrect cancer treatments. The most frequently reported contributors to delayed or misdiagnosis were inconclusive imaging, providers lack of ILC knowledge, and initial misdiagnosis. Of the 321 patients with mILC, 138 (42.9%) reported symptoms before diagnosis; the most common were back pain (16.5%), fatigue/malaise (14.9%), GI symptoms (11.8%), bloating (8.4%), and weight loss (8.1%). Although 40% of patients reported having a mammogram at the time of their initial misdiagnosis, ILC was detected in only 20.5% (24/116) of these cases, and mammography detected only 5 (25%) of the 20 de novo mILC cases. Patients reported additional diagnostic testing within 1-3 months of their initial mammogram, includingbiopsy, ultrasound (US), and MRI. 47.9% of patients were in active BC surveillance after curative intent therapy at the time of their mILC diagnosis; however, no statistical difference was seen in time to diagnosis versus those patients not under surveillance. ConclusionOur survey results underscore the urgent need to improve diagnostic strategies for mILC. Addressing delays and diagnostic errors in mILC is critical to optimizing treatment strategies and improving patient outcomes.
Yao, S.; Zimbalist, A.; Sheng, H.; Fiorica, P.; Cheng, R.; Medicino, L.; Omilian, A.; Zhu, Q.; Roh, J.; Laurent, C.; Lee, V.; Ergas, I.; Iribarren, C.; Rana, J.; Nguyen-Huynh, M.; Rillamas-Sun, E.; Hershman, D.; Ambrosone, C.; Kushi, L.; Greenlee, H.; Kwan, M.
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Background: Few studies have examined racioethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women after breast cancer treatment, who are at higher risk due to cardiotoxic cancer treatment. Methods: Based on the Pathways Heart Study of women with a history of breast cancer, this analysis examines the association between cardiometabolic risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia) and CVD events with self-reported race and ethnicity, as well as genetic similarity. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to test race and ethnicity and genetic similarity with prevalent and incident cardiometabolic risk factors and CVD events. Results: Of the 4,071 patients in this analysis, non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Asian, and Hispanic women were more likely to have prevalent and incident diabetes than non-Hispanic White (NHW) women. Analysis of genetic similarity revealed results consistent with self-reported race and ethnicity. For CVD risk, NHB women were more likely to develop heart failure and cardiomyopathy than NHW women. In contrast, Hispanic women were at lower risk of any incident CVD, serious CVD, arrhythmia, heart failure or cardiomyopathy, and ischemic heart disease, which was consistent with the associations found with Native American ancestry. Conclusions: This is the largest multi-ethnic study of disparities in CVD health in breast cancer survivors, demonstrating corroborating findings between self-reported race and ethnicity and genetic similarity. The results highlight disparities in cardiometabolic risk factors and CVD among breast cancer survivors that warrant more research and clinical attention in these distinct, high-risk populations.
DeCuir, J.; Reeves, E. L.; Weber, Z. A.; Yang, D.-H.; Irving, S. A.; Tartof, S. Y.; Klein, N. P.; Grannis, S. J.; Ong, T. C.; Ball, S. W.; DeSilva, M. B.; Dascomb, K.; Naleway, A. L.; Koppolu, P.; Salas, S. B.; Sy, L. S.; Lewin, B.; Contreras, R.; Zerbo, O.; Hansen, J. R.; Block, L.; Jacobson, K. B.; Dixon, B. E.; Rogerson, C.; Duszynski, T.; Fadel, W. F.; Barron, M. A.; Mayer, D.; Chavez, C.; Yates, A.; Kirshner, L.; McEvoy, C. E.; Akinsete, O. O.; Essien, I. J.; Sheffield, T.; Bride, D.; Arndorfer, J.; Van Otterloo, J.; Natarajan, K.; Ray, C. S.; Payne, A. B.; Adams, K.; Flannery, B.; Garg,
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Background: The 2024-25 influenza season was the most severe in the United States (US) since 2017-18, with co-circulation of both influenza A virus subtypes (H1N1 and H3N2). Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) has varied by season, setting, and patient characteristics. Methods: Using electronic healthcare encounter data from eight US states, we evaluated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza-associated hospitalizations and emergency department or urgent care (ED/UC) encounters from October 2024-April 2025 among children aged 6 months-17 years and adults aged 18+ years. Using a test-negative, case-control design, we compared the odds of influenza vaccination between acute respiratory illness (ARI) encounters with a positive (cases) versus negative (controls) test for influenza by molecular assay, adjusting for confounders. Results: Analyses included 108,618 encounters (5,764 hospitalizations and 102,854 ED/UC encounters) among children and 309,483 encounters (76,072 hospitalizations and 233,411 ED/UC encounters) among adults. Among children across care settings, 17.0% (6,097/35,765) of cases versus 29.4% (21,449/72,853) of controls were vaccinated. Among adults, 28.2% (21,832/77,477) of cases versus 44.2% (102,560/232,006) of controls were vaccinated. VE was 51% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 41-60%) against influenza-associated hospitalizations and 54% (95% CI: 52-55%) against influenza-associated ED/UC encounters among children. VE was 43% (95% CI: 41-46%) against influenza-associated hospitalizations and 49% (95% CI: 47-50%) against influenza-associated ED/UC encounters among adults. Conclusions: Influenza vaccination provided protection against influenza-associated hospitalizations and ED/UC encounters among children and adults in the US during the severe 2024-25 influenza season. These findings support influenza vaccination as an important tool to reduce influenza-associated disease.
Tan, X.; Danka, M. N.; Urbanski, S.; Kitsawat, P.; McElvaney, T. J.; Jundi, S.; Porter, L.; Gericke, C.
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Background: Lung cancer screening can reduce lung cancer mortality through early detection, but uptake of the NHS Targeted Lung Health Check (TLHC) programme remains low. Behaviourally informed invitation messages have been proposed as a low-cost approach to increase attendance, but evidence of their effectiveness in lung cancer screening is mixed. Few intervention studies used evidence-based behaviour change frameworks, and rarely tailored invitation strategies to empirically identified barriers and enablers. Methods: In an online experiment, 3,274 adults aged 55-74 years and with a history of smoking were randomised to see one of four behaviourally informed invitation messages or a control message. Participants then rated their intention to attend a TLHC appointment, and selected barriers and enablers to attending from a pre-defined list, which were classified according to the Theoretical Domains Framework. Invitation messages were mapped to Behaviour Change Techniques using the Theory and Techniques Tool. Message conditions were compared on intention to attend TLHC using bootstrapped ANOVA followed by pairwise comparisons. Exploratory counterfactual mediation analyses examined the role of fear in intention to attend. Results: Behaviourally informed invitation messages did not meaningfully increase intention to attend TLHC compared with the control message. While a GP-endorsed message showed a small potential benefit relative to the other conditions, this finding was not robust after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Participants most frequently reported barriers related to Emotion (particularly fear), Social Influence, and Knowledge, while Beliefs about Consequences emerged as the primary enabler of attendance. Only around half of reported barriers and enablers were addressed by the invitation messages. Exploratory analyses found that fear was associated with lower intention to attend a TLHC appointment, yet none of the behaviourally informed messages appeared to reduce fear compared to the control message. Conclusions: Improving lung cancer screening uptake will likely require invitation messages that directly address emotional concerns, particularly fear, alongside credible recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of systematically aligning invitation message content with empirically identified behavioural influences when designing scalable interventions to improve lung cancer screening uptake.